Financing the Green Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Energy and Climate Convergence

Abstract

This study examines how development finance relates to the green transition in Sub-Saharan 
Africa from 2016 to 2023. Using the Phillips and Sul log-t convergence approach, it analyses 
carbon emissions per capita, renewable energy consumption, and energy intensity across 49 
countries, with 29 countries covered for energy intensity. The results show no full-sample 
convergence across the three indicators, indicating that the region is not moving uniformly 
toward climate and energy sustainability. Instead, countries form distinct convergence clubs, 
reflecting differences in institutional capacity, renewable energy uptake, infrastructure, and 
access to Transition Support Facility loans and grants. The findings suggest that countries 
such as Ethiopia and Uganda perform relatively well despite limited financing. At the same 
time, parts of Central and Southern Africa remain constrained by weak institutions and 
underfunding. The study recommends targeted development finance, stronger institutions, 
improved climate-finance data, and regional cooperation to support an inclusive and 
sustainable green transition.